The Kansas City Chiefs have taken care of business through two weeks as they continue their quest to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. There has been no championship hangover with the Chiefs beating the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals by a combined eight points.
Kansas City hits the road for the first time all year in Week 3 but will face its easiest opponent to date. The Atlanta Falcons are 1-1 after a game-winning drive from Kirk Cousins to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
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Chiefs vs. Falcons best bet, pick, player props and predictions
The Chiefs are 3-point favorites against the Falcons, with an over/under of 46.5. Let’s take a closer look at the odds and highlight our favorite bets for this primetime matchup:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
Time/TV: 7:20 p.m. CT (NBC)
Spread (via BetMGM): Chiefs -3
Total: 46.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -160, Falcons +135
TOP PICK
When Caesars Sportsbook released betting lines for all NFL games in May, the Chiefs were 2.5-point favorites (-120 vig) in this matchup. The spread opened back up at -4.5 earlier this week and has since been bet down to -3.
At most shops, bettors must pay extra juice to lay the points with Kansas City. FanDuel charges -120 vig, while BetMGM offers the line at -115. I’m rushing to Fanatics to take the standard offering for the same spread.
The Chiefs aren’t as dominant with larger spreads, as evidenced by last week’s 26-25 victory as 6.5-point favorites against the Bengals. But this is where I like to back Patrick Mahomes and Co., when we essentially need them to win the game at a lower number.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Falcons 20 (Over 46.5)
Best bet: Chiefs -3 over Falcons (-110 via Fanatics Sportsbook)
OTHER PICKS
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 0.5 interceptions (+110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
The best player in football has thrown three interceptions through two games. But that came against much better competition. The Ravens had one of the best defenses in football last year, while Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has always caused problems for Mahomes.
Mahomes won’t have to do as much against the Falcons. He certainly won’t need to be as aggressive. This feels like an excellent price for a player who didn’t throw an interception in three of his four postseason games last year.
Travis Kelce UNDER 4.5 receptions (+114 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
34-year-old tight end Travis Kelce hasn’t done much so far this season. He has four receptions on seven targets, finishing with 39 yards. His longest reception is 23 yards.
Kelce recorded 34 catches in the playoffs last year, so there is always a chance he bounces back on Sunday Night Football. But I don’t think he’s a focal point of this offense in the early part of the regular season, especially with Rashee Rice taking another step.
The plus-money price on this under is too enticing to pass up with a projection below four catches.
Ray-Ray McCloud III Over 29.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Falcons have several offensive weapons, including Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London. However, with the Chiefs’ defense expected to focus on the top playmakers, receiver Ray-Ray McCloud could build off a solid start to the season.
He has 94 yards on seven catches through two games, clearing this mark in both games. Thanks to a projection in the mid-30s, this over has value at its current line.