A big question hanging over the presidential election is President Joe Biden’s strength among African American and Hispanic voters. Both groups are critical elements of the Democratic coalition that put Biden in the White House. Two out of five ballots cast for him in 2020 came from these voters.
Black and Hispanic voters each represent 13% of the nation’s electorate. According to exit polling, nearly 90% of Blacks and 65% of Hispanics voted for Biden in the last election. While pundits often lump these groups together as “minorities,” the truth is that the political dynamics and regional distribution of these voters vary considerably. That’s important when counting electoral votes and constructing winning coalitions.
Over the last 10 presidential elections, the African American share of the national electorate grew 30% and the Hispanic share increased by more than 400%.
Ron Nabonne, a New Orleans lawyer and longtime campaign strategist, admits “there is a concern” that Black voters won’t give Biden the big numbers he won in the last election but thinks the concern is “overhyped.” Nabonne believes Biden will again receive a high percentage of Black votes, but worries about how many votes will be cast. To increase turnout, there is a need to boost the campaign’s “positive energy,” he said.
Robert Collins, a political analyst and professor at Dillard University, has a similar view. He doesn’t see a major move among African Americans from Biden to Donald Trump. But, he said, “some votes that leave Biden may not vote at all.”
The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows Biden getting 75% of Black voters in a race against Trump, but that’s 12 points below Biden’s actual vote in 2020. Democratic operatives, however, believe they have time to push that number back up.
Worse for Biden is the 45% of Hispanic voters the poll shows he’s now attracting, a perilous 20-point drop from the 65% support he received last time. Democrats are terrified that Biden may not be able to replicate the level of Hispanic backing he received in 2020.
In addition, the survey finds that 38% of White voters support Biden’s reelection — which is three points lower than in the last election.
The polling also reports that 28% of Black voters disapprove of Biden’s job performance as president. At first glance, that seems like a low number. But when you can afford to lose only about 10% of a group’s vote, 28% becomes a dangerously high number. Among Hispanics, 45% approve of Biden’s job performance and 48% disapprove.
Underscoring the voter turnout problem Biden’s camp faces, the poll shows that 40% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats are “extremely enthusiastic” about casting ballots this year. Also, 30% of Whites, 24% of Blacks and 19% of Hispanics express extreme enthusiasm.
If Biden suffers even a small decline in support or turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, it would jeopardize his ability to win close states — especially Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada — that are crucial to victory.
To keep this from happening, Collins said Biden “needs to talk about the future, how people’s lives will be better if he wins again...Just touting good economic statistics isn’t enough if voters don’t feel it.”
Campaign tactics of the 1970s, '80s and '90s aren’t working anymore, he explained. “Young Blacks are motivated by economics, their own pocketbooks, in addition to social causes. They need to know that electing Biden will make a difference in their lives.”
Nabonne believes Biden must emphasize “ideas that are bigger than he is.”
“While saving democracy is clearly important, it’s too academic to move most voters,” he said. “People are still feeling inflation when they buy groceries and necessities. Democrats can’t get bogged down in intellectual arguments. They need to make this election about our children and grandchildren.”
There are many reasons why people vote. White, Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters all care about the economy, inflation, jobs, immigration, health care, crime, education, world peace and the ability of politicians to deliver on their promises. Just because you’re in one group doesn’t mean you don’t share the concerns of individuals in other groups.
People running campaigns need to keep that in mind.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, pollster and writer based in Louisiana. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.