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The city skyline is covered in clouds during a rain storm in New Orleans, La. Tuesday, March 23, 2021. (Photo by Max Becherer, NOLA.com, The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans Advocate)

Tropical Storm Francine's track forecast shifted east Tuesday morning, putting New Orleans uncomfortably close to the center of the storm. 

As of 4 p.m. Tuesday, Francine was expected to hit Louisiana mid-week about 86 miles southwest of New Orleans. Does that put the Crescent City in the path of the storm's notorious "dirty" side?

What is the 'dirty' side of a storm?

The "right side" of a storm isn't always to the east — it's defined by the direction the storm is moving. If a storm is heading north, the right side is to the east. If it's moving west, the right side is on the north.

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Francine is expected to continue moving north-northeast over the next several days, putting its bad side generally to the east, according to National Weather Service forecaster Rob Frye. 

Why is the dirty side more intense?

The right side of a storm is associated with slightly higher wind speeds and more intense storm surge for a few reasons, Frye said. 

All storms that form in the northern hemisphere rotate counterclockwise due to the Coriolis effect, which we don't need to get into here. As a storm moves forward, that driving push and counterclockwise rotation allow for stronger winds on its right side. 

Satellite GIF francine

Satellite image of Francine on Tuesday, September 10, 2024, via the NOAA. 

"It adds a little more oompf," Frye said. 

So if a storm with 70 mph winds is moving at 10 mph, it could have up to 80 mph winds on the right side and winds of 60 mph on the left side. Francine was moving at 9 mph with sustained winds of 65 mph as of 1 p.m. Tuesday, but is expected to hit Louisiana's coast Wednesday with winds of a little less than 100 mph. 

Because of that counterclockwise rotation, Frye said the left side of a storm actually pulls wind from on shore, where there are houses, trees and other obstacles that slow the storm's winds down. 

On the right side, winds are pulled from the obstacle-free sea. 

"There’s less friction, there’s just water," Frye said. "That’s another reason why specifically our area is a little more vulnerable on the eastern side.”

That swirling effect also impacts coastal waters, pushing tides higher onto land and causing more intense storm surge on a storm's dirty side. 

Who is currently on Francine's bad side?

The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Francine ticked east Tuesday morning, putting the eye of the storm just south of Morgan City at landfall on Wednesday evening. 

Francine cone 10 a.m. 091024

From the National Hurricane Center

If that track holds, Frye said that would put Interstate 55 and anything just east of it on Francine's dirty side, including much of the New Orleans metro. 

The full brunt of the right side's effects are felt closer to the eye, Frye said, and are less intense the farther you get from the storm's center. 

"If there’s another shift farther to the east we can’t rule out a little bit more of an impact," Frye said. 

Don't get caught up on the exact track 

Dan Brown, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, agreed that the right side of a storm often produces higher winds, storm surge and sometimes even rainfall totals. 

But Brown said residents within Francine's forecasted path shouldn't get hung up on the exact track, which is still likely to shift here and there within the next two days. Some model trends show Francine's track moving even farther east before landfall. 

"A hurricane is not a point," Brown said, adding that its impacts extend far beyond the eye of a storm, regardless of what side you're on. He encouraged people in south Louisiana to get prepared today. 

"It doesn't take too much wind to cause some power outages," he said. 

Email Kasey Bubnash at kasey.bubnash@theadvocate.com.