AFC East action continues as the New England Patriots and New York Jets get Week 3 started on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are looking to improve to 2-1 in the primetime clash, so who has the edge?
MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey hosts this AFC East showdown. Kickoff is slated for 7:15 p.m. CT and Amazon Prime will broadcast the game for national audiences. Let's break down the odds, give a prediction and produce a best bet for the battle between familiar foes.
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New England Patriots vs. New York Jets odds, pick, prediction
New England was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL as it entered the first year post-Bill Belichick. However, Jerod Mayo's men have been surprisingly competitive, beating the Cincinnati Bengals and taking the Seattle Seahawks to overtime. A win on Thursday and the Patriots will be halfway to their projected preseason win total of four.
It hasn't been a seamless return to the regular season for New York, although opening with San Francisco is never easy. The Jets' rust carried over into their contest with the Tennessee Titans though. Aaron Rodgers and Co. were able to squeak out a win, but the performance was far from convincing.
FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Jets as 6.5-point favorites with an over/under of 38.5.
Let's dive into the odds for the highly anticipated clash:
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Time/TV: 7:15 p.m. CT (Amazon Prime)
Spread (via FanDuel Sportsbook): Jets -6.5
Total: 38.5
Moneyline: Jets -290, Patriots +235
Analysis: I'm going to be completely transparent, I don't understand this line at all. It feels like this spread is based more on each team's ceiling rather than where the level they're playing at currently.
New York has started the season with a 13-point loss to a Christian McCaffrey-less 49ers team and a come-from-behind victory in Tennessee. While the offense has weapons in place, it's obvious that the oldest player in the league (Aaron Rodgers) is easing back into things as he returns from injury.
This isn't to say New England has been stellar, but the Patriots' play so far has earned more respect than oddsmakers are currently giving them.
The situations on both sidelines have changed drastically in recent years. Nevertheless, the Jets haven't beaten New England at home in regulation since 2010. The Patriots haven't lost outright at MetLife Stadium since 2015.
Mayo has established an identity in New England. The Patriots will run the football down their opponent's throat and play hardnosed defense. They'll be lining up against the NFL's 24th-ranked rush defense, which allows north of 150 yards per game on the ground.
Meanwhile, New England has the league's second-best rush defense and allows 58 yards per game. This will make New York's offense incredibly one-dimensional and I'm not convinced Rodgers is ready to shoulder the load just yet.
Thursday Night Football games have been ugly for the past couple of years. If that trend continues, it plays right into the hands of the visitors. I'll take the Patriots to keep it close and cover at their home away from home.
Prediction: Jets 17, Patriots 13 (Under 38.5)
Best bet: Patriots +6.5 at Jets (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)